tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post154820164044257619..comments2024-03-23T13:45:19.208-04:00Comments on Serene Musings: The 2012 Presidential Election: My PredictionScotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10535260741343975445noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-42928599257714069672012-10-25T18:27:07.882-04:002012-10-25T18:27:07.882-04:00The Republican Party Platform this year explicitly...The Republican Party Platform this year explicitly condemns bills aimed at getting rid of the electoral college system.<br /><br />I agree that voter turnout won't be as good this year, but I haven't seen anything to cause me to think that it will be worse for one party than the other. Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10535260741343975445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-30454588277067168752012-10-25T17:58:31.293-04:002012-10-25T17:58:31.293-04:00Unfortunately the excitement from four years ago i...Unfortunately the excitement from four years ago in terms of record voter turnout is not happening this year. This is my opinion of course but I think a lot of people just want the whole process to be over. Two weeks from now should be very interesting. I'm not a big fan of the electoral college.Cassiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07338534063566138347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-87169649931999835022012-10-23T22:43:14.451-04:002012-10-23T22:43:14.451-04:00One thing I wanted to add to this post is this: If...One thing I wanted to add to this post is this: If Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, or Florida, it's pretty much game over. Turn off the TV and go to bed because he's going to win the election. Romney can't lose any of those states and still win, in my opinion. Bad news for Romney is that he's behind in two of those three states, and Obama's lead in OH is bigger than Romney's lead in FL. Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10535260741343975445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-44316034844114564192012-10-23T22:41:30.467-04:002012-10-23T22:41:30.467-04:00Trent: Yes, voter turnout could ultimately decide ...Trent: Yes, voter turnout could ultimately decide the election. I think one of the reasons we see some of these polls with outrageous numbers (like the NH poll yesterday with Obama leading by 9, when Romney led by 4 just a few days earlier) may result from polling people who aren't likely to vote. Obama's victory is definitely in the hands of voter turnout among the young and minorities.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10535260741343975445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-45405962051366123552012-10-23T22:39:38.798-04:002012-10-23T22:39:38.798-04:00Tim: Yeah, I think it's time for serious consi...Tim: Yeah, I think it's time for serious consideration of getting rid of the electoral college. Even without the importance of the Ohio's and Florida's, the fact is that when you vote for a candidate that ends up losing your state, your vote basically doesn't matter. I live in Kentucky, and Romney is going to win big here, so it really doesn't matter whether I vote at all. My vote won't ultimately count towards Obama's electoral tally.<br /><br />If we elected the president on a popular vote, every vote would count, even if your vote is the minority in your particular state.<br /><br />Thanks for the comment! Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10535260741343975445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-27308823619775511632012-10-23T10:25:21.960-04:002012-10-23T10:25:21.960-04:00Solid analysis Scott and I agree with everything y...Solid analysis Scott and I agree with everything you said. The BIG question is: will the college kids and the minorities show up in record numbers like they did 4 years ago? That in my opinion will determine this election.<br /><br />Trent NTrent N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12038292184477849932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29179803.post-65510035716390567422012-10-23T07:14:30.183-04:002012-10-23T07:14:30.183-04:00This is a reasonable prediction. I live in Michiga...This is a reasonable prediction. I live in Michigan, which is dominated by the Democratic leaning Detroit-Ann Arbor corridor in the winner take all situation. The rest of the state is very Republican. Thus, a occassional Rebublican Governor, and a constantRepublican State Legislature is the norm. The fact that Mitt is the son of a former governor doesn't even help him here. Also, the amount of support Obama has given the auto industry has pretty much locked up the state for him.<br />Ohio is a real possibility for Romney. I wonder, does one feel like their vote even counts if they don't live in FL, OH, or VA?Timnoreply@blogger.com